Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 85020.221426 89729.052863 94436.283512 99491.681546 104763.979129 110096.978531 115895.739295
2025-02-16 76635.869967 83801.023517 91165.167542 99289.196075 107989.643051 117017.429903 127082.490139
2025-02-23 71114.507282 79970.624219 89272.796468 99750.691780 111202.693682 123317.485342 137080.476892
2025-03-02 66621.747052 76710.566762 87502.978597 99872.072373 113620.095013 128395.707769 145439.622985
2025-03-09 63745.542056 74914.638389 87052.152574 101170.462931 117087.845637 134424.381852 154679.264405
2025-03-16 60285.934240 72208.285940 85354.558802 100856.069858 118561.917123 138081.101486 161150.428626
2025-03-23 58374.582946 71110.861807 85337.171221 102314.790694 121928.966533 143780.921267 169866.496183
2025-03-30 56371.372892 69775.416344 84930.713508 103221.325049 124577.831811 148604.221712 177550.827745
2025-04-06 54148.725578 68062.872520 83979.656428 103396.591957 126298.077690 152301.574518 183903.130217
2025-04-13 52000.637880 66335.062221 82916.902605 103353.018477 127688.182714 155561.369154 189712.475824
2025-04-20 50890.556330 65791.510572 83203.285872 104860.056752 130870.053588 160893.468228 197946.019487
2025-04-27 49867.719537 65298.157649 83502.899461 106344.284020 133999.762017 166156.821631 206113.120627
2025-05-04 48454.218250 64291.630979 83162.921133 107053.759328 136220.292646 170388.174100 213137.207448
2025-05-11 46756.224797 62872.041908 82267.927117 107044.448688 137543.205333 173537.677490 218881.407075
2025-05-18 45435.615167 61874.825569 81847.942102 107578.730744 139498.775906 177432.855907 225526.012855
2025-05-25 44006.473635 60686.514387 81142.871986 107717.078644 140935.519593 180681.557408 231386.805667
2025-06-01 43249.254032 60327.562120 81450.945839 109099.333873 143898.332473 185789.913850 239530.966943
2025-06-08 41747.927189 58953.412081 80428.870620 108765.553987 144692.329701 188222.203215 244395.497385
2025-06-15 41173.851334 58768.368243 80903.956134 110316.181976 147842.347455 193563.776193 252864.668043
2025-06-22 40374.756000 58256.478431 80934.282821 111279.667818 150242.411903 197979.587633 260209.100476
2025-06-29 39282.614102 57318.727229 80381.682692 111465.934709 151636.692749 201134.560093 265992.356912
2025-07-06 38145.260104 56285.081443 79672.017193 111419.628737 152711.548975 203877.260238 271261.216457
2025-07-13 37738.256306 56226.257842 80231.882594 113021.074142 155903.095045 209295.113609 279916.280763